The college football world was expecting a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four matchups underwhelmed, offering lots of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 against the spread, including three fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public do not seem to think so. At least in 2 cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been an especially popular choice with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of total dollars as of Monday afternoon.
"All the money is coming in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text message to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The enthusiasm for the Longhorns reaches the futures market also. Remember that massive $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the greatest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most love from sharp gamblers. The Athletic spoke to a number of bookmakers who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very respected gamer."
Although highly regarded cash has come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public gamblers are overdoing Texas.
"We would love to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.
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While the Texas game will be huge for the books, it isn't the only video game in town. We talked with numerous bookies to break down where the wagering action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at a lot of sportsbooks and has actually approached somewhat to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at most sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in terms of total tickets at BetMGM books.
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"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I would not be amazed if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, however I currently welcome any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd chance it desired. Are the Buckeyes ready for revenge?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
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Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams met back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet.
So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked to before the CFP first round had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker pointed out that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also formed his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before reputable cash pushed it to the existing line of -2.5. A slightly higher bulk of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the cash has come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the four come kickoff.
"We did take some reputable money at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable said. "It's good two-way action at that number right now. The total has increased 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the greatest relocation of any of the totals. Money has all been on the over up until now.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp wagerers, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and immediately our Ohio gamblers thought we were too low. Our opening rate of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
He did note, however, that the book had actually seen substantial buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The favorite turned in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line flip? Simply put, the wagering action.
Despite the fact that Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been changed by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars bet), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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